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02/22/2012 - Marana, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top overall seed and defending champion Luke Donald was eliminated Wednesday in the first round of the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship.
Donald drew no ordinary No. 64 seed.
Ernie Els, who only made the field thanks to withdrawals by Phil Mickelson and Paul Casey, trounced Donald, 5 & 4, at the Ritz Carlton Golf Club.
"Obviously playing against Luke, I needed to be on," Els said in a televised interview. "I knew had to play really well and I did. I kept it in play and made some big putts in the end."
Donald never trailed en route to victory last year and he never reached the 18th green. He didn't get there on Wednesday, either, but that was due to the play of his Hall of Fame opponent.
Donald never led in the match and Els built a 2-up lead at the turn. Donald fought gamely, but never won another hole. Els took the 11th, 12th and 14th holes to knock off the No. 1 player in the Bobby Jones bracket.
Donald was the only No. 1 seed to lose. Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and last year's runner-up, Martin Kaymer, were victorious.
Tiger Woods, a three-time champion, holed a gutsy 12-foot par putt to beat Gonzalo-Fernandez Castano. Woods, seeded No. 5 in the Sam Snead bracket, didn't have his best game, but hung tough and did better than last year when he was eliminated in the first round.
"We both made our share of mistakes; there's no doubt about that," said Woods. "But somehow I was able to move on."
Woods fell 2-down right out of the gate, but built a 1-up lead with wins at five, seven and eight. Woods stumbled badly with losses at 10 and 11, then made a tough par save just to halve the 12th and stay 1-down.
Woods squared the match with a birdie at 15 and Fernandez-Castano let one get away at 16. He had six feet to halve the hole, but missed to give Woods a 1-up lead.
After pars at 17, Woods' second flew into the back bunker at the last. He had a tough shot from the trap with little green to work with and did well to get it 12 feet past the flag.
Fernandez-Castano had a decent look at birdie, but missed and was conceded par. Woods needed to make his putt to avoid extra holes and did just that.
Woods will meet the fourth seed in the Snead bracket, Nick Watney, who advanced with a resounding 5 & 4 victory over reigning British Open champion Darren Clarke.
The top seeds moved on in Woods' part of the Snead bracket. Westwood defeated Nicolas Colsaerts, 3 & 1, while eighth-ranked Robert Karlsson trounced fellow Swede Fredrik Jacobson, 6 & 5.
The bottom portion of that bracket featured all upsets. Matteo Manassero, No. 15, eliminated the second seed, Webb Simpson, 3 & 2. Martin Laird knocked off Alvaro Quiros, 1-up, while Ryo Ishikawa won the 18th to upend last week's Northern Trust Open winner and third seed, Bill Haas, 1-up. Paul Lawrie, the 11th seed, beat Justin Rose, 1-up.
Kaymer, the highest seed in the Ben Hogan bracket, was steady in his win and drew David Toms in the second round after Toms, the 2005 winner and eighth seed this year, topped Rickie Fowler, 1-up.
The rest of that bracket almost totally went in form with higher seeds Steve Stricker, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson and Hunter Mahan winning. The only major upset was 14th-seeded Y.E. Yang knocking off No. 3 Graeme McDowell, 2 & 1.
McIlroy, tops in the Gary Player bracket, earned a hard-fought victory over George Coetzee, 2-up. McIlroy will next meet Anders Hansen, who dusted Kyung-tae Kim, 5 & 3.
"I felt like I played pretty good," McIlroy said in his televised interview. "Thankfully I'm through to the second round."
Miguel Angel Jimenez upset fellow Spaniard Sergio Garcia, 2 & 1, and "The Mechanic" next has Keegan Bradley, a playoff loser last week but a 4 & 3 victor over two-time Accenture winner Geoff Ogilvy.
The No. 2 seed in the Player bracket, Jason Day, won the last three holes in regulation, then the first playoff hole to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello. Day's opponent Thursday will be John Senden, the 10th seed, who beat Simon Dyson, 4 & 3.
Masters champion Charl Schwartzel advanced on Wednesday and has a tilt with Sang-Moon Bae on Thursday after Bae handled 2010 winner Ian Poulter, 4 & 3.
Els will meet Peter Hanson on Thursday after Hanson topped Jason Dufner, 2 & 1.
Brandt Snedeker needed three extra holes to fend off Retief Goosen, setting up a re-match of the Farmers Insurance Open playoff against Kyle Stanley, who outlasted K.J. Choi, 2 & 1.
The other winners in the Jones bracket were No. 3 Dustin Johnson, No. 11 Francesco Molinari, 10th seed Mark Wilson and Robert Rock, the 15th seed, who beat No. 2 Adam Scott.
NOTES: It was the third time the No. 1 overall seed lost in the first round...There were 15 upsets in the first round, the second-most in tournament history...The second round is on tap for Thursday, and the third round will be played Friday. The quarterfinals are Saturday, then the semifinals Sunday morning, followed by the final and consolation match in the afternoon.
<< Durant added to 3-point contest
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant has
been added to the 3-point contest for this weekend's All-Star Game festivities
in Orlando.
Durant will take the spot of Atlanta Hawks guard Joe Johnson, who wi
<< Celtics' Rondo added to All-Star roster
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Celtics guard Rajon Rondo has been
added to the 2012 East All-Star team for this weekend's game in Orlando.
Rondo will take the spot of Atlanta Hawks guard Joe Johnson, who will miss
All-Star w
<< UConn coach Calhoun to have surgery
Storrs, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Connecticut men's basketball coach Jim Calhoun
will miss at least two more games after having surgery to help alleviate the
spinal stenosis that forced him to take a medical leave of absence.
Calhoun will u
<< Bills restructure McGee's contract
Orchard Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Bills on Wednesday
restructured the contract of cornerback Terrence McGee.
McGee, who was due $3.6 million next season, is coming off patella tendon
surgery. He suffered the
Rosenbach named Montana's offensive coordinator >>
Missoula, MT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former NFL quarterback Timm Rosenbach has been
named offensive coordinator at the University of Montana, Grizzlies head coach
Robin Pflugrad announced Wednesday.
Rosenbach, 45, also will serve as Montana's qua
Angels sign Isringhausen to minor league deal >>
Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have agreed to
terms on a minor league contract with veteran right-handed reliever Jason
Isringhausen.
The 39-year-old Isringhausen appeared in 53 games last season for the
Notre Dame downs WVU, sets school record >>
South Bend, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jerian Grant scored 20 points and the 20th-
ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish set a school record for most consecutive Big
East wins with a 71-44 victory over the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Scott Martin a
No. 23 Indiana rolls over NC Central >>
Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cody Zeller scored 17 points and Victor
Oladipo netted 16 as No. 23 Indiana rolled over NC Central, 75-56, at Assembly
Hall.
Will Sheehey added 12 points and seven rebounds, while Derek Elsto
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Favors Fighting Irish to win College Football betting odds
According to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, on January 8, the Fighting Irish faithful may be toasting their 14th national title in Arizona – Notre Dame’s first national championship in close to 20 years.
Although MySportsbook.com has listed Notre Dame as the 5-1 favorite to win thecollege football College Football betting, fans in Columbus do not need to cancel their tickets to Glendale just yet. The Ohio State Buckeyes, listed right behind the Irish at 7-1, are also heavy favorites to win college football’s most coveted prize, while West Virginia, USC and the 2007 National Champion Texas Longhorns - all listed at 8-1 – are strong contenders as well.
MySportsbook.com has also posted gambling odds on the conference championships for the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. In the ACC – it could be anyone’s title, particularly for the two schools from the Sunshine State. Florida State and Miami, both listed at 2-1, are favored to win the ACC Championship Game odds, with the ‘Noles hoping to finish in the nation’s top 10 for the first time in five years, and the ‘Canes looking to avenge their 10-7 loss against FSU in last year’s ACC Championship betting.
Moving west to the Big 12, MySportsbook.com has betting lines listing Texas as 7-5 favorites to repeat as conference champions, even though the Longhorns lost their national championship-winning quarterback Vince Young to the NFL. In the south, the Auburn Tigers – led by Heisman-hopeful senior running back Kenny Irons – have been given the best odds to win the SEC Championship odds at 5-2.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
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7-5 9-5 9-2 12-1 14-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 35-1 100-1 100-1 |
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5-2 11-4 4-1 6-1 7-1 7-1 9-1 20-1 28-1 75-1 100-1 300-1 |
For complete NCAA football odds please visit Mysportsbook.com.
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