Basel leaves it late to shock Bayern

Soccer Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Basel, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Basel continued its impressive Champions League campaign on Wednesday, leaving it late to shock Bayern Munich with a 1-0 victory at St. Jakob-Park.

In a back-and-forth match where both sides traded scoring opportunities, Basel landed the only actual blow as Valentin Stocker scored in the 86th minute.

Stocker collected a through ball on the left side of the box before calmly slipping a shot through the legs of Bayern goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, denying the visitors the chance to head back to Munich level on aggregate.

The late goal proved to be the climax in a match not short on entertainment value.

Franck Ribery had two early chances to put Bayern in front but he was foiled on both occasions by Yann Sommer.

The French attacker found himself inside the six-yard box in the third minute with only Sommer to beat, but the Swiss 'keeper stretched out his hand to deny Bayern the opening goal.

Ribery broke through again in the 12th minute after latching on to a through ball, but Sommer deflected the shot out of play to keep Bayern at bay.

Basel responded with several close scoring opportunities.

Marco Streller's effort in the 16th minute forced a brilliant save from Neuer who pushed the shot off the post. The ball trickled along the goal line before being cleared to safety by the Bayern defense.

Alexander Frei came inches away from opening the scoring in the 19th minute when he lashed a shot on goal. His attempt beat Neuer but rattled the crossbar and bounced back into play.

David Alaba smashed a shot from distance in the 29th minute that looked destined for the roof of the net, but Sommer palmed the ball away to once again deny Bayern.

Philipp Lahm was the first player to create a decent scoring chance in the second half as the Germany international cut inside in the 68th minute and unleashed shot from outside the box, but Sommer came up big again to parry the attempt away.

The visitors were left to rue their misses as Stocker's late goal ensured a one-goal Basel advantage for the second leg, slated for March 13 at the Allianz Arena.

Basel will advance with a win, draw, or any loss by a one-goal deficit in which the Swiss side scores.

Marseille 1, Inter Milan 0

Marseille, France - Andre Ayew scored his fourth goal of the Champions League season in dramatic fashion, as his header in the dying minutes lifted Marseille to a 1-0 victory over Inter Milan at the Stade Velodrome on Wednesday.

Inter Milan looked destined to take a scoreless draw back to the San Siro for the return leg, but Ayew nodded a corner kick past Julio Cesar deep into second-half stoppage time to help Marseille steal the win.

The French club will head to Italy for the replay on March 13, leading the Italian giants 1-0 on aggregate.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.